Assessment of cardiovascular risk in a slum population in Kenya

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death globally and have become the leading cause of death in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).1 Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a key player in this epidemic, accounting for most NCD deaths, and studies of CVD in urban areas of LMICs have suggested that risk is growing.2–4

A large proportion of the world’s urban population live in slums — neighbourhoods that are often informal, with poor housing and inadequate services.5 There are conflicting views regarding CVD as a major public health problem for the urban poor, including those living in slums. An overview of health in slums found no synthesised evidence on CVD prevalence or the prevalence of CVD risk factors, while primary studies indicated that some CVD risk factors appear to be less prevalent among those living in slums than in their non-slum urban counterparts.5 However, other primary studies carried out in urban LMICs have indicated that CVD risk is inversely associated with socioeconomic status, or that there is no strong socioeconomic gradient, which would suggest that those living in slums had at least equivalent or higher risk than other urban residents.6 7

Conventionally, CVD risk prediction focused on the presence of certain individual risk factors (eg, elevated blood pressure or serum cholesterol), however the recognition of the multifactorial aetiology of CVD has led to a drastic shift away from the single risk factor approach toward a multivariable risk prediction approach. Taking into account the coexistence of multiple risk factors to determine CVD risk has been supported by much research that clearly demonstrates that the risk of a CVD event can differ among individuals with the same high levels of single risk factors due to the presence or absence of other risk factors.8–10 Furthermore, studies have shown that identifying individuals at high CVD risk by adopting a total CVD risk assessment approach is more cost-effective method of CVD prevention especially in low resource settings.11 12 Determining total CVD risk requires risk prediction tools. The WHO/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) developed risk score prediction charts for different WHO subregions for the purposes of enabling clinicians to quickly assess total CVD risk in their patients, but also allow for risk stratification of a population in a simple manner.13

However, there are no existing studies that have assessed multivariable risk prediction of CVD in a slum population. Therefore, the primary aim of this study is to apply the WHO/ISH risk prediction tool to a slum population in Nairobi, Kenya. In addition, we were able to assess the number of cardiovascular-related deaths occurring within the slum (but not non-fatal events, or fatal events occurring elsewhere) reported within 10 years of application of the tool, giving us some idea about the utility of the WHO/ISH tool in this population, and about the burden of CVD within the slum setting. These findings will inform plans for health service delivery in the context of urban poor settings.

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