Background

The African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC) is a premier, Africa-based and led research-to-policy institution headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, with a West Africa Regional Office (WARO) in Dakar, Senegal. As APHRC prepares for its next strategic cycle (2027–2031), it faces a global landscape defined by monumental geopolitical shifts that are reshaping the world order. These shifts are characterized by long-term changes in global influence, power, cooperation, and ideology, driven by political realignments such as the growth of BRICS, global security conflicts (e.g., Ukraine, Sudan, and Palestine), and shifting economic centers.

These seismic shifts are profoundly impacting the global health and research ecosystem. Key challenges include the erosion of global health coordination, marked by the weakening of institutions like the WHO, mismatched public health priorities, and the emergence of health nationalism or “vaccine apartheid”. Furthermore, recent defunding of critical public health programs in Africa by major donors threatens to erode gains made in HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and maternal health.

To navigate this evolving environment, APHRC, in collaboration with the Science for Africa Foundation (SFA), seeks to engage a consultancy firm to conduct a comprehensive geopolitical situation analysis. This assessment will identify relevant geo-economic shifts and assess their implications for research priorities, funding sustainability, and partnerships. The goal is to provide actionable recommendations that ensure institutional resilience, relevance, and long-term impact for APHRC and the broader African research and innovation ecosystem within this changing global order. The consultancy will commence in May 2026 and conclude by June 30th, 2026.

Objectives  

The following are the specific objectives of the assignment:

• Identify key geopolitical and geo-economic shifts most relevant to APHRC, SFA, and peer institutions.
• Assess the implications of these shifts on research, policy engagement, partnerships, and funding.
• Analyze associated risks and propose practical mitigation measures.
• Identify emerging opportunities arising from these shifts.
• Provide actionable recommendations to inform current operations and future Strategic Planning, with insights adaptable to other institutions in the research and development ecosystem.

Specific tasks and deliverables will include:

• Inception Package: Develop a comprehensive report detailing the refined scope, analytical framework, methodology, workplan, and stakeholder engagement plan, grounded in a review of APHRC (2022-2026) and SFA (2023-2027) Strategic Plans.
• Geopolitical Landscape Analysis: Produce situational reports analyzing global aid architecture, health financing shifts (DAH), donor priorities (OECD/BRICS), and emerging R&D themes, assessing their impact on the operational sustainability of both institutions.
• Institutional Strategic Review: Deliver an analytical brief evaluating the alignment of APHRC and SFA strategic frameworks with emerging geopolitical trends, specifically identifying risks, vulnerabilities, and strategic opportunities.
• Stakeholder Consultations: Conduct and summarize insights from structured engagements with internal (Boards, leadership, staff) and external (partners, funders, regional bodies) stakeholders to inform the joint operating environment.
• Strategic Options & Recommendations: Formulate evidence-based, prioritized actions (short-, medium-, and long-term) to enhance resilience and policy influence, including insights adaptable to peer African research institutions.
• Comprehensive Assessment Report: Produce a final report detailing methodology, findings, and actionable recommendations to serve as a strategic tool and a public good for the broader global health research ecosystem.
• Validation & Dissemination: Present findings to the management and Boards of both institutions, delivering a final consolidated report and PowerPoint to inform APHRC’s 2027–2031 planning and SFA’s strategic reviews.

          Qualifications and Competencies

To align the consultant qualifications with the joint APHRC and SFA initiative as outlined in the Geopolitical Shifts-APHRC23March26.docx concept note, the requirements are refined to ensure the consultant can address the specific challenges and strategic goals of both organizations.

Required Qualifications and Competencies

• Minimum of a master’s degree (PhD preferred) in international relations, global health policy, political economy, or related social sciences. This is essential for understanding the “monumental global geopolitical shifts” and “global health governance” changes currently reshaping the world order.
• At least 10 years of progressive experience conducting geopolitical or strategic environment analyses. The consultant must have a proven track record of working with research-to-policy institutions and understanding “evidence-to-policy pathways,” which is core to the mission of both APHRC and SFA.
• Demonstrated experience analyzing global aid architecture, development assistance for health (DAH), and the priorities of both traditional (OECD) and non-traditional (BRICS) providers. This is critical to assessing the impact of USG defunding and the weakening of global institutions like the WHO.
• Mastery of scenario analysis, PESTLE, horizon scanning, and strategic foresight methodologies. These tools are necessary to identify risks like “health nationalism” and to propose “practical mitigation measures” for both organizations.
• Proven ability to align external environment analyses with organizational planning. The consultant must be able to translate complex shifts into actionable recommendations for APHRC’s 2027–2031 Strategic Plan and the review of SFA’s 2023–2027 plan.
• Strong skills in qualitative and mixed methods approaches, including key informant interviews and stakeholder consultations with diverse groups such as Boards of Directors, Executive Leadership, and regional bodies (e.g., EAC, SADC).
•  Deep understanding of the priorities of major global funders (e.g., Gates Foundation, Wellcome, SIDA, IDRC). This knowledge is vital to ensuring the “operational sustainability” and “long-term impact” of the African research ecosystem.
• Exceptional analytical and report-writing skills, with the ability to produce high-level strategic reports and presentations suitable for senior management and Board-level engagement.
•  Ability to produce findings that serve not only as a strategic tool for APHRC and SFA but also as a “public good” that provides intelligence for the broader African research and innovation ecosystem.

        Oversight

The assignment will be overseen by the Chief of Staff at APHRC in close coordination with SFA leadership. Both institutions will facilitate access to internal data and coordinate interviews with their respective internal and external stakeholders.

     Ethical Considerations

All assessment activities will strictly adhere to APHRC and SFA ethical and data protection policies, including informed consent, confidentiality, and responsible data management.

          Application process 

 Application documents should include:

• Cover letter describing their eligibility for the assignment and understanding of the TOR.
• A technical proposal outlining the evaluation approach, methodology, workplan, and any underlying organizational development frameworks.
• A financial proposal (itemized budget).
• Detailed curriculum vitae of key personnel.
• Work profile including a reverse chronological list of similar projects/assignments and contact details (name, email/phone) of supervisors/clients.
• Three professional references.

Applications should be submitted via email to consultancies@aphrc.org, copying procurement@aphrc.org with the email subject “APHRC Geopolitical Assessment”. The deadline for submission of applications is April 15, 2026. Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted.

Special Notice

APHRC is an equal opportunity employer that is committed to creating a diverse and inclusive workplace. All employment and consultancy recruitment decisions are made based on qualifications and organizational needs. Reasonable accommodation may be provided to applicants with disabilities upon request to support their participation in the recruitment process. Applicants are not required to make any payments to anyone during any stage of the recruitment process.